The Housing “Crash” Is Absolute Bull****
All over the news this morning, you can see the headlines that read something like this:
“Home Prices Fall Again In May”
Yes, it’s true: The Case Shiller Composite Index of 20 cities in the USA did fall again in May. But that’s not the story.
As usual, the real story is deeper that the surface. Here are some significant and important points I gleaned from the most recent report:
- The Case Shiller index fell 0.9% from April to May - but this is both less than expected and less severe than the previous month
- 7 of the 20 regions in the Case Shiller index actually showed month over month increases. Here in my home town of Atlanta, we’re up 1% during the time in question
- Most of the decline can be accounted for in markets like Miami and Las Vegas that experienced run-ups that everyone knew was unrealistic and unsustainable
- The entire net effect of the housing decline at this time is that prices are now where they were in 2004 - only FOUR YEARS AGO
That’s right: Housing prices are currently where they were in 2004, only FOUR YEARS AGO. Take a moment to think about that. Four years is the time of ONE presidential term. Four years is LESS than the average student takes to get a bachelor’s degree. Four years is a mere 1.7% of the history of the United States.
Keep it in perspective, folks. All this housing “crash” is is an opportunity to make up for the fact that you weren’t sufficiently active as a real estate investor four years ago.
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I know an investor that just bought a nice investment home in Las Vegas from a lender. Just 3 years ago that home sold for $478K. He bought it for $200K. His due diligence showed that the home would rent for a nice positive cash flow. He had to come up with a strong down payment, but was able to finance to remainder of the purchase using a loan at 8% annual interest from another investor’s self-directed retirement fund. A good property management company will manage the property, so he will receive a net check every month. His plan is to hold the property until it appreciates up to around $300K and sell it for a nice profit. He buys in down markets and sells in up markets.
This is fundamentally good thinking. When there’s blood flowing in the streets - and across the headlines of newspapers - it’s time to be contrarian. — Bryan Ellis
Just another example of becareful of the headline.
If a person reads the body of the article the first point, of real note and one many people kind of forget to mention, is this index is only 8 years old. What about all of the housing falls, crisis and declines over the last say 100 years. There have been a number if you look at history and we recovered.
The next point in Elphinstone’s article was his math, kind of weird. First he qoutes the 20-city index, then brings in the 10-city index, then goes back to the 20 city index. He then finishes with 9 metro areas and Vegas and Miami, to prove his point. If you are going to quote number then learn how to do it.
Housing prices didn’t drop 15.8% in May they dropped only 0.9% decline from April to May. Direct quote from Money magazine’s original article. This is just another example of the incredible mismash of facts most of the media puts out.
The second half of the article in Money is somewhat positive showing a slowing of declines. Why was this overlooked? Doesn’t make as dramatic press.
So becareful what you read, it isn’t what it looks like.
Chris
Jeffrey Smith: If you actually have a property manager for sub 100 units n Las Vegas that’s worth anything, please share.
Every time I pick up the paper the headlines show only bleak stories about the housing market . The media in general is continuing to fan the flames of the mortgage meltdown and as long as they do I think most folks are going to stay away from real-estate as an investment. Its good and bad for us as investors . On the one hand we just picked up a nice three unit in Baltimore that is currently cash-flowing with only two units rented . ( not by a whole lot but hey its money coming in ) We are currently looking for more of the same . On the other hand at some point all of us in this business are going to need to sell properties , but without the liquidity because the media is scaring everyone away it makes it much harder to unload investment property.
I for one am staying optimistic , I remember my parents having to get a mortgage at 18% in the early 80s and the economy was a mess but we all survived . All markets move up and down and its the oldest wisdom in the world that tells you to buy when its down even when everyone is running away actually “especially” when everyone is running away because they will be back.
I think it’s a promising thing to be a real estate investor right now, because even though real estate values have declined, personal income is basically where its been for some time. This translates into charging similar rents for properties that cost less to acquire and finance. A very good things for investors. Of course, this will work itself out over time as well, just as it should. — Bryan Ellis
Love him or hate him but Michael Moore is correct. The media is there to scare @##@$%% out of people. They think it sells more papers, etc. I for one ignore the media.
I agree the media prefers to sell fear, uncertainty and doubt. Michael Moore, however, doesn’t even rise to that standard. — Bryan Ellis
In my area (SF East Bay) we have had 8 homes for sale for the last 9+ months and this last month 5 of them have sold. I would like to think that there is a bottom to this market coming soon.
I lived through the last RE slump in 1980’s and as I see it the time is NOW to start buying anything that you can afford.
The prices will not stay this low long.
Beeing a Norwegian, living in Norway, i follow your market development with great interest. Your press is adapting to tje culture of the majority, those beeing conserned about their private economy. This press will only support topics that builds up under topics like your latest legislation conserning home owners right to negotiate loans etc. Its important that you spread correct information as you do. Keep up the goos work !
That should be Good Work, he he !